Recluse reflections: Monorail: Will it pass?
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Tuesday, November 08, 2005  
Monorail: Will it pass?

I've never been able to predict what would happen with this project.

I figure that the proposition might pass yet again.

This project -- despite the Rove-like secrecy and misrepresentations of its advocates -- has always presented itself as a protest project. It doesn't do much for congestion in Seattle, except possibly for one neighborhood, but it seems like a way to vote to do something. After spending hundreds of millions of dollars and producing reams of preliminary studies, the Seattle Monorail Project hasn't done a thing for real transportation solutions in Seattle.

And even if this short-line proposal passes, it's not at all certain that anything will ever be built. Even the ten miles mentioned in the proposition is highly unlikely since the SMP's risky finances are still being questioned by those who would have to give it permission even after a vote.

Beyond that, and even if city official cave in yet again to the ill-advised project, the group will have to deal with a flurry of lawsuits once they finally offer a finished construction plan. SMP no doubt expects to face suits from the downtown landowners and developers whose projects would be blighted by the proposed elevated guideways (with their huge piers on the street). At the very least, suits of that kind will probably increase the amounts they'll have to pay for long-term mitigation fees to the affected areas.

It happened to Sound Transit in south Seattle even after they'd spent years and hundreds of millions on their preliminary studies. They had significantly changed plans for that area after neighborhood activists objected to their initial plans to run an elevated train route through the neighborhood. The activists complained that elevated transit often becomes a blight to the neighborhoods over which the trains operate. Sound Transit responded by proposing a surface alignment along Martin Luther King Way. But once they'd released their first "final" construction plan for the area, a new group of opponents arose who objected to this must-studied alignment.

SMP can expect the same kind of fierce opposition from even richer and better financed groups who have, at least, telegraphed their opposition for years.

All of that means, that what we're most likely to see (if we see anything at all) is a four- or six-mile line from West Seattle to King Street Station. That wouldn't make much sense for the cost especially since every car owner in Seattle would be paying hundreds of dollars a year for the toy line.

But making sense has never particularly important to this transit project.

It's always been presented as a romantic Jetsons-esque way to travel even though few would find their tightly packed train cars all that romantic and even though the bulky viaduct that would cut through neighborhoods is mostly likely to become a blight.

It's also been presented as a way of "sticking it to the man" even though it's a grossly expensive way to send a message.

But, still, it might just pass. And we'll be able to suffer through another few years of preliminary plans and broken promises.

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