Notes on spaces seen through windows
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| Recluse reflections: Monorail Project releases new cost guesses for short line Notes on spaces seen through windows |
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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 Monorail Project releases new cost guesses for short line
According to the PI, Seattle Monrail Project has released preliminary cost figures for the short line monrail route that will appear on the November ballot. They now claim to be able to build the line from West Seattle, through downtown, and to a service barn in Interbay for about $3.9 billion.It sounds like the initial construction and operation cost for the 10-mile line is unchanged from the initial projections for the cost of the 14-mile line. It will cost about $1.7 billion to build and operate the shorter line. The other $2.2 billion or so is for interest on the loans that they'd float for the line and then repay from taxes collected for the next 31 or 38 years. The $1.7 billion cost for the shorter line is an interesting figure since the SMP once claimed that they could build the longer 14-mile route for $1.6 billion. I guess this is an indication of just how unrealistic their initial projections were since they're now prepared to pay more for a shorter route that cuts out at least four of the initially planned stations. This new cost estimate should also throw into doubt the continuing hope of Ballard residents that the train could somehow make it over the ship canal into their neighborhood. If it takes 30 to 40 years to pay off the costs of building the short line, how likely is it that voters would tax themselves even more to buy a longer system with an expensive bridge over the ship canal? I look forward to more analysis of this cost figure. A couple of questions I'd like to see answered:
These two items are closely related since the final costs aren't likely to be known until SMP and its contractor release a final construction plan. The downtown portion of the route seems to me to be the riskiest and costliest segment since it is most likely to be challenged and is the most expensive segment for mitigation. Sound Transit and its bus-service partners are spending $16 milllion on mitigation projects related to the temporary closure of the downtown transit tunnel and busway. It seems reasonable to expect that SMP would have to pay at least that much for the greater disruption caused by the street-level construction required to install their piers and guideways along downtown streets. Does the new SMP cost estimate adequately account for this kind of cost? Long-term mitigation charges are likely to be even higher for a street-level project like SMP's since the piers and elevated caged guideways will have a significant deleterious effect on nearby property values. SMP should expect to face the same kinds of issues that Sound Transit faced with their surface-level alignment through South Seattle. Do they have the money in their new plan to cover these kinds of contingencies? There are dozens of other questions about the new estimates. If the questions aren't asked, then we could end up in the same position after the election that we're in now: With a bureaucracy spending millions of tax dollars with nothing to show for it.Technorati tags: Seattle monorail Seattle Monorail Project Seattle Boondoggle posted by WebWrangler | 5:11 PM | Link | 0 comments
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